Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of he...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 111; no. 1; pp. 87 - 92
Main Authors van de Leemput, Ingrid A., Wichers, Marieke, Cramer, Angélique O. J., Borsboom, Denny, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Kuppens, Peter, van Nes, Egbert H., Viechtbauer, Wolfgang, Giltay, Erik J., Aggen, Steven H., Derom, Catherine, Jacobs, Nele, Kendler, Kenneth S., van der Maas, Han L. J., Neale, Michael C., Peeters, Frenk, Thiery, Evert, Zachar, Peter, Scheffer, Marten
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 07.01.2014
National Acad Sciences
SeriesFrom the Cover
Subjects
Adolescent
Adult
Affect
Aged
Algorithms
Autocorrelation
Biological Sciences
Climate tipping point
comorbidity
Correlation analysis
Correlations
critical transitions
daily-life
Depressive Disorder, Major - diagnosis
Depressive Disorder, Major - physiopathology
Depressive Disorder, Major - therapy
Depressive disorders
emotional inertia
Emotional stability
Emotional states
Emotions
Female
Genetic variation
Humans
Major depressive disorder
Male
Mental depression
Middle Aged
Models, Psychological
Multilevel models
Multivariate Analysis
negative affect
population-based sample
Probability
psychiatric-disorders
Psychiatry
psychopathology
signals
Social Sciences
Statistical variance
Stochastic Processes
Surveys and Questionnaires
Time Factors
tipping point
Twin Studies as Topic
Young Adult
positive feedback
critical transitions
early warning signals
experience sampling method
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Summary:About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.
Bibliography:http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110
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Edited* by Stephen R. Carpenter, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, and approved November 11, 2013 (received for review June 26, 2013)
Author contributions: I.A.v.d.L., M.W., A.O.J.C., D.B., F.T., E.H.v.N., E.J.G., S.H.A., K.S.K., H.L.J.v.d.M., M.C.N., P.Z., and M.S. designed research; I.A.v.d.L., M.W., E.H.v.N., C.D., N.J., F.P., and E.T. performed research; I.A.v.d.L., M.W., F.T., and W.V. analyzed data; and I.A.v.d.L., M.W., A.O.J.C., D.B., F.T., P.K., E.H.v.N., W.V., E.J.G., S.H.A., C.D., N.J., K.S.K., H.L.J.v.d.M., M.C.N., F.P., E.T., P.Z., and M.S. wrote the paper.
1I.A.v.d.L. and M.W. contributed equally to this work.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1312114110