中国主要法定报告传染病的“春节效应”研究

目的探讨我国主要法定报告传染病疫情是否存在＂春节效应＂。方法首先根据每月天数和人口自然增长率,对卫生部全国传染病网络直报系统提供的2005年至2011年月报告病例数进行调整,然后利用时间序列分解法分解出传染病的季节性因素S和SRi（季节性因素和随机性因素）,最后结合传染病的该两项指标的变化情况及对应的潜伏期、春节时间,推测其是否具有＂春节效应＂。结果发现甲肝、乙肝、丙肝、戊肝、百日咳、淋病和梅毒可能具有＂春节效应＂。结论该7种传染病之所以表现出＂春节效应＂,可能原因是春节期间大规模人群流动等社会因素影响其传染源、传播途径和易感人群等方式而呈现出的结果。研究结果提示在春节期间应加强相关传染病的防...

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Published in复旦学报（医学版） Vol. 40; no. 2; pp. 153 - 158
Main Author 魏珊 陆一涵 高眉扬 卫国荣 姜庆五 赵耐青 郑英杰
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室-教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室 上海200032 2013
Subjects
传染病
发病
季节
感染
节日
感染
节日
传染病
季节
发病
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Summary:目的探讨我国主要法定报告传染病疫情是否存在＂春节效应＂。方法首先根据每月天数和人口自然增长率,对卫生部全国传染病网络直报系统提供的2005年至2011年月报告病例数进行调整,然后利用时间序列分解法分解出传染病的季节性因素S和SRi（季节性因素和随机性因素）,最后结合传染病的该两项指标的变化情况及对应的潜伏期、春节时间,推测其是否具有＂春节效应＂。结果发现甲肝、乙肝、丙肝、戊肝、百日咳、淋病和梅毒可能具有＂春节效应＂。结论该7种传染病之所以表现出＂春节效应＂,可能原因是春节期间大规模人群流动等社会因素影响其传染源、传播途径和易感人群等方式而呈现出的结果。研究结果提示在春节期间应加强相关传染病的防治工作。
Bibliography:Objective To explore the ＂Spring Festival effects＂ of the notifiable communicable diseases in China.Methods Based on the monthly cases of each notifiable communicable disease provided by Web-based National Reporting System on Notifiable Communicable Diseases from the year of 2005 to 2011,seasonality S and SRi（including seasonality and randomness） of each disease were split out by using decomposition methods after adjustment of the days in each month and population growth rate.Then the ＂Spring Festival effects＂ were inferred via comprehensive analysis of the variations of S and SRi as well as the incubation period and the date of Spring Festival.Results Hepatitis A,B,C,E,whooping cough,gonorrhea and syphilis were found to exhibit ＂Spring Festival effects＂.Conclusions Possible reasons of ＂Spring Festival effects＂ are social factors,such as massive population migration during this period,which would affect infectious pathogen,transmission and susceptible populations of the studied diseases.In addition,it suggest
ISSN:1672-8467
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-8467.2013.02.005