Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 61; pp. 472 - 482
• Main Authors: Lin, Boqiang, Xie, Chunping
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2013; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Applied sciences; China; China (People's Republic); Co-integration method; Economic data; Energy; Energy conservation; Energy consumption; Energy economics; Energy policy; Exact sciences and technology; Fossil fuels and derived products; General, economic and professional studies; Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction; Highway transportation; industrialization; Industry; issues and policy; Labor productivity; Methodology. Modelling; Monte Carlo method; Monte Carlo simulation; Oil; Oil consumption; Oil demand; Oil price; Oil saving potential; oils; Petroleum industry; Prices; Risk; risk analysis; Road transport; Road transportation and traffic; Saving; Studies; Transportation industry; Urbanization; China; Asia; China, People's Rep; Oil saving potential; Co-integration method; Monte Carlo simulation; Consumption; Demand; Monte Carlo method; Road vehicle; Econometric model; Road network; Autoregressive model; Risk analysis; Gross domestic product; Energy savings; Petroleum; Road transportation; Simulation; Cointegration; Energy conservation; Economic growth; Price; Technology
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.017

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5millionton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86MTOE and 131MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. •We adopt the co-integration model to estimate oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector.•Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis.•GDP, ratio of classified highway, labor productivity and oil price are main factors affecting oil consumption.•Scenario analysis approach is applied to calculate oil saving potential under different energy saving scenarios.•Future policy for oil conservation in China's road transport sector is suggested.