Chaotic Properties of the Arctic Oscillation Index

In this letter, we investigate nonlinear properties of the underlying dynamics for the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). First, we develop a test statistic for surrogate data analysis so that we can deal with the high-dimensionality of AOI. Second, we validate the test statistic with toy models. Then,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inSOLA Vol. 7; pp. 33 - 36
Main Authors Hirata, Yoshito, Shimo, Yuko, Tanaka, Hiroshi L., Aihara, Kazuyuki
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Japanese
Published Tokyo Meteorological Society of Japan 01.01.2011
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Subjects
PN, Arctic
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Summary:In this letter, we investigate nonlinear properties of the underlying dynamics for the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). First, we develop a test statistic for surrogate data analysis so that we can deal with the high-dimensionality of AOI. Second, we validate the test statistic with toy models. Then, by applying the proposed new test statistic with surrogate data to the dataset of AOI for the last 60 years, we show that AOI is nonlinear with determinism beyond pseudo-periodicity. These results mean that the underlying dynamics of AOI is consistent with deterministic chaos, implying that it is predictable in a short-term but not in a long-term.
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ISSN:1349-6476
1349-6476
DOI:10.2151/sola.2011-009