Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors

• Published in: BMC ecology and evolution Vol. 24; no. 1; pp. 48 - 16
• Main Authors: Xiao, Yang, Guo, Qiqiang, Xie, Na, Yuan, Gangyi, Liao, Mengyun, Gui, Qin, Ding, Guijie
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 17.04.2024; BioMed Central; BMC
• Subjects: Algorithms; Analysis; Biodiversity; Bursaphelenchu xylophilus; Bursaphelenchus xylophilus; Climate change; Climatic changes; Climatic conditions; Coniferous forests; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; Distribution; Ecological niches; Economic impact; Ecosystems; Environmental aspects; Environmental economics; Environmental factors; Forests; Genetic aspects; Geographic information systems; Geographical distribution; Geography; Health aspects; Identification and classification; MaxEnt; Nematoda; Niche (Ecology); Nonnative species; Pathogens; Pine wilt disease; Precipitation; Seasonal distribution; Seasonal variations; Timber; Variables; East Asia; North America; China; Asia; Europe; Bursaphelenchu xylophilus; Climate change; Pine wilt disease; MaxEnt; Distribution
• ISSN: 2730-7182; 2730-7182
• DOI: 10.1186/s12862-024-02234-1

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner&Buhrer) Nickle is a global quarantine pest that causes devastating mortality in pine species. The rapid and uncontrollable parasitic spread of this organism results in substantial economic losses to pine forests annually. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and GIS software ArcGIS10.8 to predict the distribution of B. xylophilus based on collected distribution points and 19 environmental variables (with a correlation coefficient of|R| > 0.8) for the contemporary period (1970–2000), 2041–2060 (2050s), 2061–2080 (2070s), and 2081–2100 (2090s) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the key environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of B. xylophilus and suitable distribution areas. Our results indicate that in current prediction maps B. xylophilus had potential suitable habitats in all continents except Antarctica, with East Asia being the region with the most highly suitable areas and the most serious epidemic area currently. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were identified as key environmental variables that determine the distribution of B. xylophilus . Under future climatic conditions, the potential geographic distribution of B. xylophilus will expand relative to current conditions. In particular, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2081–2100, suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes, and there will be significant changes in suitable areas in Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings are crucial for future prevention and control management and monitoring.