Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

• Published in: Contemporary economic policy Vol. 21; no. 2; pp. 200 - 217
• Main Authors: Kobos, Peter H., Erickson, Jon D., Drennen, Thomas E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.04.2003; Western Economic Association International; Blackwell Publishers Ltd; Western Economic Association
• Series: Contemporary Economic Policy
• Subjects: Air pollution; American dollar; Automobiles; Carbon dioxide; China; Company marketing practices; Conversion; Currency; Economic aspects; Economic growth; Economic models; Economics; Emissions; Energy economics; Energy efficiency; Estimates; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Industrialized nations; International comparisons; International trade; Marketing; Per capita; Policy studies; Power demand; Prices; Purchasing power parity; Renminbi; Road transport; Studies; Transport economics; Vehicles; China
• ISSN: 1074-3529; 1465-7287
• DOI: 10.1093/cep/byg005

This article reports on a simulation and scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth and resulting energy demand and CO2 emissions. The model includes provincial level logistic growth functions with saturation levels representative of neighboring Asian economies, income growth measured in international dollars, and both estimated and literature‐based income elasticities. Scenarios explore variation in key parameters, including income and population growth rates, elasticity income ranges, fuel economy, and vehicle saturation. Countrywide base case results estimate growth from 4.22 to 54.33 passenger vehicles per thousand people from 1995 to 2025. Resulting passenger vehicle oil demands and CO2 emissions increase nearly 17‐fold.