华南前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及成因
应用福建、广东、广西243个气象站1961—2012年逐日降水资料,构建华南前汛期暴雨强度指数,揭示了前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及其可能机理。研究表明：前汛期持续性暴雨经历了多发（1961—1972年）—少发（1973—1991年）—多发（1992—2012年）3个阶段,目前仍处于多发期,具有持续时间较长且强度增强的特点;由于前汛期降水的低频振荡受热带低频信号北传的调制,因此,导致这种显著年代际变化的可能成因是热带低频信号北传的周期和强度的年代际差异,当热带低频信号北传至华南时低频周期长（短）且强度强（弱）,则前汛期易出现持续时间长（短）且强度强（弱）的持续性暴雨。...
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| Published in | 应用气象学报 Vol. 28; no. 1; pp. 86 - 97 |
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| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
福建省气候中心,福州,350001%福建省莆田市气象台,莆田,351100
2017
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Summary: | 应用福建、广东、广西243个气象站1961—2012年逐日降水资料,构建华南前汛期暴雨强度指数,揭示了前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及其可能机理。研究表明：前汛期持续性暴雨经历了多发（1961—1972年）—少发（1973—1991年）—多发（1992—2012年）3个阶段,目前仍处于多发期,具有持续时间较长且强度增强的特点;由于前汛期降水的低频振荡受热带低频信号北传的调制,因此,导致这种显著年代际变化的可能成因是热带低频信号北传的周期和强度的年代际差异,当热带低频信号北传至华南时低频周期长（短）且强度强（弱）,则前汛期易出现持续时间长（短）且强度强（弱）的持续性暴雨。 |
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| Bibliography: | 11-2690/P Based on the daily precipitation data of 243 stations in Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi during 1961 —2012,indices（intensity of daily rainstorm I_（RD）,intensity of persistent rainstorm I_（RS）,intensity of South China pre-flood season persistent rainstorm I_（RZ）） are calculated and persistent rainstorm processes are selected.Indices reveal decadal variation characteristics of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm by kinds of mutation test and percentile method.It indicates that the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm can be divided into three sections,multiple（1961-1972）— fewer（1973-1991） —multiple（1992-2012）.The present stage is in multiple sections with stronger intensity and longer duration;pre-flood season precipitation exhibits a significant low-frequency oscillation characteristic.The decadal variation of duration and intensity of persistent rainstorm during pre-flood season are closely related to that of configuration and intensity of low-frequency periodic signal.There is a pos |
| ISSN: | 1001-7313 |
| DOI: | 10.11898/1001-7313.20170108 |