Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia

• Published in: BMC research notes Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 132
• Main Authors: Aldila, Dipo, Samiadji, Brenda M, Simorangkir, Gracia M, Khosnaw, Sarbaz H A, Shahzad, Muhammad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 12.04.2021; BioMed Central; BMC
• Subjects: Asymptomatic; Basic Reproduction Number; Contact tracing; Control; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 vaccines; COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage; Disease transmission; Distribution; Epidemics; Equilibrium; Evaluation; Humans; Immunization Programs - organization & administration; Indonesia; Indonesia - epidemiology; Intervention; Mathematical models; Models, Theoretical; Ordinary differential equations; Population; Population studies; Quarantine; Rapid testing; Research Note; Sensitivity analysis; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Social distancing; Vaccination; Indonesia; Jakarta Indonesia; COVID-19; Contact tracing; Basic reproduction number; Rapid testing; Vaccination
• ISSN: 1756-0500; 1756-0500
• DOI: 10.1186/s13104-021-05540-9

Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors. Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta's government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.