Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

• Published in: Parasites & vectors Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 237 - 15
• Main Authors: Zhang, Nan, Cheng, Xiao-Qing, Deng, Bin, Rui, Jia, Qiu, Luxia, Zhao, Zeyu, Lin, Shengnan, Liu, Xingchun, Xu, Jingwen, Wang, Yao, Yang, Meng, Zhu, Yuanzhao, Huang, Jiefeng, Liu, Chan, Liu, Weikang, Luo, Li, Li, Zhuoyang, Li, Peihua, Yang, Tianlong, Li, Zhi-Feng, Liang, Shu-Yi, Wang, Xiao-Chen, Hu, Jian-Li, Chen, Tianmu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 06.05.2021; BioMed Central; BMC
• Subjects: Animals; Arachnid Vectors - virology; Asymptomatic; Bunyavirus; China - epidemiology; Cutting; Disease control; Disease transmission; Distribution; Dynamics; Environment; Epidemiology; Fatalities; Fever; Humans; Hyperthermia; Incidence; Infections; Infectious diseases; Intervention; Mathematical model; Middle Aged; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Pathogens; Population; Prevention; Provinces; Risk factors; Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome; Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome - epidemiology; Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome - prevention & control; Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome - transmission; Thrombocytopenia; Ticks; Ticks - virology; Transmission; China; South Korea; Japan; Dynamic; Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome; Bunyavirus; Ticks; Transmission; Environment; Mathematical model
• ISSN: 1756-3305; 1756-3305
• DOI: 10.1186/s13071-021-04732-3

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is regionally distributed in Asia, with high fatality. Constructing the transmission model of SFTS could help provide clues for disease control and fill the gap in research on SFTS models. We built an SFTS transmission dynamics model based on the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model and the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province. This model was used to evaluate the effect by cutting off different transmission routes and taking different interventions into account, to offer clues for disease prevention and control. The transmission model fits the reported data well with a minimum R value of 0.29 and a maximum value of 0.80, P < 0.05. Meanwhile, cutting off the environmental transmission route had the greatest effect on the prevention and control of SFTS, while isolation and shortening the course of the disease did not have much effect. The model we have built can be used to simulate the transmission of SFTS to help inform disease control. It is noteworthy that cutting off the environment-to-humans transmission route in the model had the greatest effect on SFTS prevention and control.