基于气象因素的临沂水稻产量评估预测模型

临沂市水稻产量总体呈上升趋势,但受气象因素影响有所波动。利用山东省临沂市2001～2013年气象资料和水稻产量数据,用指数平滑法测定水稻趋势产量,分离出水稻气象产量,与逐月平均日照时数、气温、降水量进行相关分析,确定了气象因素影响产量的关键时期,建立回归方程并进行检验。通过对历年产量进行检验,预测精度最高为99.9%,最低为95.9%,平均精度为98.5%,预测模型具有较高的精度,可用作临沂市水稻产量评估预测。...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in江西农业学报 Vol. 28; no. 10; pp. 71 - 74
Main Author 赵桂涛 刘中聚 冯尚宗 赵理 王世伟 娄华敏
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 山东省临沂市农业技术推广站,山东 临沂,276004%山东省临沂市种子管理站,山东 临沂,276004 2016
Subjects
模型
气象因素
水稻产量
评估预测
Rice yield
Prediction and evaluation
气象因素
评估预测
模型
Model
Meteorological factor
水稻产量
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Summary:临沂市水稻产量总体呈上升趋势,但受气象因素影响有所波动。利用山东省临沂市2001～2013年气象资料和水稻产量数据,用指数平滑法测定水稻趋势产量,分离出水稻气象产量,与逐月平均日照时数、气温、降水量进行相关分析,确定了气象因素影响产量的关键时期,建立回归方程并进行检验。通过对历年产量进行检验,预测精度最高为99.9%,最低为95.9%,平均精度为98.5%,预测模型具有较高的精度,可用作临沂市水稻产量评估预测。
Bibliography:The yield of rice in Linyi city generally has an upward tendency,but it shows a little fluctuation due to the influences of meteorological factors. According to the meteorological data and rice yield data of Linyi city in Shandong province during the years 2001～2013,we measured the tendency yield of rice by using exponential smoothing method,and separated out the meteorological yield of rice from it. Through the analysis of correlations between rice meteorological yield and monthly average sunshine duration,air temperature,rainfall,the author found the key period in which the meteorological factors had effects on rice yield,and established and tested a regression equation. By comparing the actual yield and forecast yield of rice over the years,this forecast model had a high forecast accuracy（ 95.9%～99.9%,98.5% in average）,so it could be used for the prediction and evaluation of rice yield in Linyi city.
36-1124/S
Meteorological factor; Rice yield; Prediction and evaluation; Model
ZHAO Gui-tao1, LIU Zhong-ju1 , F
ISSN:1001-8581
DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2016.10.16