Avoidable cancer cases in the Nordic countries – The impact of overweight and obesity

• Published in: European journal of cancer (1990) Vol. 79; pp. 106 - 118
• Main Authors: Andersson, Therese M.-L, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Engholm, Gerda, Lund, Anne-Sofie Q, Olafsdottir, Elinborg, Pukkala, Eero, Stenbeck, Magnus, Storm, Hans
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2017; Elsevier Science Ltd; Elsevier
• Subjects: Adenocarcinoma; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Body weight; Breast cancer; Cancer; Clinical medical disciplines: 750; Colon; Computer simulation; Disease prevention; Esophageal cancer; Esophagus; Female; Hematology, Oncology and Palliative Medicine; Humans; Incidence; Klinisk medisinske fag: 750; Male; Medical disciplines: 700; Medicin och hälsovetenskap; Medisinske Fag: 700; Middle Aged; Neoplasms - epidemiology; Neoplasms - prevention & control; Obesity; Obesity - epidemiology; Oncology: 762; Onkologi: 762; Overweight; Overweight - epidemiology; Population attributable fraction; Post-menopause; Potential impact fraction; Prevalence; Prevention; Risk Factors; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries - epidemiology; VDP; Young Adult; Prevention; Obesity; Potential impact fraction; Population attributable fraction; Overweight; Cancer
• ISSN: 0959-8049; 1879-0852; 1879-0852
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2017.03.028

Abstract Background Several types of cancers are causally linked to overweight and obesity, which are increasing in the Nordic countries. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden linked to overweight and obesity in the Nordic countries and estimate the potential for cancer prevention. Methods Under different prevalence scenarios of overweight and obesity, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries in the next 30 years (i.e. 2016–2045) was estimated for 13 cancer sites and compared to the projected number of cancer cases if the prevalence stayed constant. The Prevent macro-simulation model was used. Results Over the period 2016–2045, 205,000 cancer cases out of the 2.1 million expected for the 13 cancer sites (9.5%) that have been studied, could be avoided in the Nordic countries by totally eliminating overweight and obesity in the target population. The largest proportional impact was found for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (24%), and the highest absolute impact was observed for colon (44638) and postmenopausal breast cancer (41135). Conclusion Decreased prevalence of overweight and obesity would reduce the cancer burden in the Nordic countries. The results from this study form an important step to increase awareness and priorities in cancer control by controlling overweight and obesity in the population.