Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

• Published in: Science Vol. 373; no. 6557; pp. 889 - 895
• Main Authors: Kraemer, Moritz U G, Hill, Verity, Ruis, Christopher, Dellicour, Simon, Bajaj, Sumali, McCrone, John T, Baele, Guy, Parag, Kris V, Battle, Anya Lindström, Gutierrez, Bernardo, Jackson, Ben, Colquhoun, Rachel, O'Toole, Áine, Klein, Brennan, Vespignani, Alessandro, Volz, Erik, Faria, Nuno R, Aanensen, David M, Loman, Nicholas J, du Plessis, Louis, Cauchemez, Simon, Rambaut, Andrew, Scarpino, Samuel V, Pybus, Oliver G
• Format: Journal Article Web Resource
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 20.08.2021; American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Communicable Disease Control; Context; Coronavirus; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 - transmission; COVID-19 - virology; COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing; Disease transmission; Dispersal; Ecology; Emerging diseases; Epidemiology; Genome, Viral; Genomes; Growth rate; Human behavior; Human health and pathology; Humans; Immunity; Importation; Incidence; Infectious diseases; Life Sciences; Microbiology and Parasitology; Mobility; Outbreaks; Pandemics; Phylogeography; Polymerase chain reaction; Respiratory diseases; Santé publique et épidémiologie; SARS-CoV-2 - genetics; SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Spatial variations; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Travel; United Kingdom - epidemiology; Viral diseases; Virology; Viruses; United Kingdom; United Kingdom > UK
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abj0113

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.