The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

• Published in: Earth's future Vol. 7; no. 6; pp. 652 - 663
• Main Authors: Toreti, Andrea, Belward, Alan, Perez‐Dominguez, Ignacio, Naumann, Gustavo, Luterbacher, Jürg, Cronie, Ottmar, Seguini, Lorenzo, Manfron, Giacinto, Lopez‐Lozano, Raul, Baruth, Bettina, Berg, Maurits, Dentener, Frank, Ceglar, Andrej, Chatzopoulos, Thomas, Zampieri, Matteo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.06.2019; American Geophysical Union; Wiley
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agricultural production; Agriculture; Agronomy; Anomalies; Climate change; climate extremes; climate projections; Climate Research; Computer simulation; Crop growth; Crops; Dipoles; Drought; Drought conditions; Environment and Society; Environmental Sciences; Europe; Growing season; Growth models; Klimatforskning; Paleoclimate; Precipitation; Probability Theory and Statistics; Rainfall; Remote sensing; Sannolikhetsteori och statistik; Temperature; water seesaw; Europe; agriculture; water seesaw; drought; climate projections; Europe; climate extremes
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001170

Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5‐year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy‐based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018‐like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high‐end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro‐economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw. Key Points Unique concurrent spring and summer climatic anomalies affected Europe in 2018 2018‐like droughts could become a common occurrence as early as 2043 Climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture in Europe cannot count on recurrent water seesaws