Evaluation of dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses

• Published in: Canadian journal of civil engineering Vol. 39; no. 4; pp. 374 - 387
• Main Authors: Goodarzi, Ehsan, Mirzaei, Majid, Ziaei, Mina
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Ottawa, ON NRC Research Press 01.04.2012; National Research Council of Canada; Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press
• Subjects: Applied sciences; bivariate and univariate flood frequency; Buildings. Public works; Computation methods. Tables. Charts; Computer simulation; Dam failures; Dams; Dams and subsidiary installations; Discharge coefficient; débordement; Exact sciences and technology; Flood frequency; Flood peak; Floods; Freshwater; fréquence d’inondation à une et deux variables; Hydraulic constructions; Hydrographs; Inflow; Malaysia; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Methods; Monte Carlo method; Monte Carlo methods; Monte Carlo simulation; Monte Carlo simulation, Latin hypercube sampling; Multivariate analysis; overtopping; Properties; Risk; risk and uncertainty; Risk assessment; risque et incertitude; simulation de Monte Carlo; Statistical methods; Stresses. Safety; Structural analysis. Stresses; technique d’échantillonnage hypercubique latine; Uncertainty; Water depth; Iran; Asia; Malaysia; Monte Carlo method; Uncertainty; Statistical distribution; Bivariate distribution; Risk analysis; Hydrography; Dam; Latin hypercube sampling; Flood; Univariate distribution; Frequency; Numerical simulation; Construction safety; Computing method
• ISSN: 0315-1468; 1208-6029
• DOI: 10.1139/l2012-012

There is a growing tendency to assess safety of dams by mathematical and statistical methods in hydrosystem engineering. This research presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses by applying Gumbel logistic distribution. The bivariate frequency analyses produced six inflow hydrographs with a joint return period of 100 years. Afterward, the overtopping risk of the Doroudzan Dam was evaluated for all six inflow hydrographs by considering quantile of flood peak discharge, initial depth of water in the reservoir, and discharge coefficient of spillway as uncertain variables and using two uncertainty analysis methods; Monte Carlo simulation and Latin hypercube sampling. Finally, the results of both univariate and bivariate frequency analyses were compared to show the significance of bivariate analysis on dam overtopping.