Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter
Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME...
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Published in | Climate dynamics Vol. 39; no. 1-2; pp. 475 - 493 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Berlin/Heidelberg
Springer-Verlag
01.07.2012
Springer Springer Nature B.V |
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Abstract | Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982–2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. |
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AbstractList | Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982–2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982-2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982-2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. Keywords El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) * Canonical ENSO * ENSO Modoki * Seasonal prediction skill * Teleconnection * Multi-model ensemble (MME) * Coupled general circulation model Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982-2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Ashok, Karumuri Ahn, Joong-Bae Lee, June-Yi Braganza, Karl Schemm, Jae-Kyung E. Jeong, Hye-In Lee, Doo Young Ham, Yoo-Geun Hendon, Harry H. Luo, Jing-Jia |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Hye-In surname: Jeong fullname: Jeong, Hye-In organization: APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan National University – sequence: 2 givenname: Doo Young surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Doo Young organization: APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan National University – sequence: 3 givenname: Karumuri surname: Ashok fullname: Ashok, Karumuri email: ashok@tropmet.res.in organization: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology – sequence: 4 givenname: Joong-Bae surname: Ahn fullname: Ahn, Joong-Bae organization: Pusan National University – sequence: 5 givenname: June-Yi surname: Lee fullname: Lee, June-Yi organization: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii – sequence: 6 givenname: Jing-Jia surname: Luo fullname: Luo, Jing-Jia organization: Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC – sequence: 7 givenname: Jae-Kyung E. surname: Schemm fullname: Schemm, Jae-Kyung E. organization: NCEP/NOAA Climate Prediction Center – sequence: 8 givenname: Harry H. surname: Hendon fullname: Hendon, Harry H. organization: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology – sequence: 9 givenname: Karl surname: Braganza fullname: Braganza, Karl organization: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology – sequence: 10 givenname: Yoo-Geun surname: Ham fullname: Ham, Yoo-Geun organization: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Universities Space Research Association |
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Keywords | Teleconnection Multi-model ensemble (MME) Seasonal prediction skill El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Coupled general circulation model Canonical ENSO ENSO Modoki Performance evaluation Multimodel Ensemble simulation Seasonal forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation El Nino Winter Regional scope Effect on climate Composite analysis El Niño Modoki Climate forecast |
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Snippet | Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern... Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern... |
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SubjectTerms | Analysis Climate change Climate models Climatology Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics General circulation models Geophysics/Geodesy Marine Meteorology Methods Ocean temperature Oceanography Southern oscillation Weather forecasting |
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Title | Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter |
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