Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 39; no. 1-2; pp. 475 - 493
• Main Authors: Jeong, Hye-In, Lee, Doo Young, Ashok, Karumuri, Ahn, Joong-Bae, Lee, June-Yi, Luo, Jing-Jia, Schemm, Jae-Kyung E., Hendon, Harry H., Braganza, Karl, Ham, Yoo-Geun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01.07.2012; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Climate change; Climate models; Climatology; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; General circulation models; Geophysics/Geodesy; Marine; Meteorology; Methods; Ocean temperature; Oceanography; Southern oscillation; Weather forecasting; India; ASW, South America; USA; INW, Asia; Australia; IS, Tropical Pacific; Teleconnection; Multi-model ensemble (MME); Seasonal prediction skill; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Coupled general circulation model; Canonical ENSO; ENSO Modoki; Performance evaluation; Multimodel; Ensemble simulation; Seasonal forecast; El Niño Southern Oscillation; El Nino; Winter; Regional scope; Effect on climate; Composite analysis; El Niño Modoki; Climate forecast
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1359-3

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982–2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.