Impact of COVID-19 vaccination rates and public measures on case rates at the provincial level, Thailand, 2021: Spatial panel model analyses

• Published in: Tropical medicine and infectious disease Vol. 8; no. 6; pp. 1 - 10
• Main Authors: Jitpeera, Charuttaporn, Wongsanuphat, Suphanat, Thammawijaya, Panithee, Sonthichai, Chaninan, Iamsirithaworn, Sopon, McNabb, Scott J N
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel, Switzerland MDPI 01.06.2023; MDPI AG
• Subjects: Analysis; Coronaviruses; COVID-19 (Disease); COVID-19 vaccination; COVID-19 vaccines; Curfews; Data analysis; Diagnostic use; Disease control; Disease transmission; Gender; Health aspects; Immunization; Mortality; Pandemics; Polymerase chain reaction; Public health; Quarantine; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; spatial analysis; Statistical significance; Thailand; Travel; Travel industry; Treatment; Vaccination; Thailand; China; COVID-19 vaccination; Thailand; spatial analysis
• ISSN: 2414-6366; 2414-6366
• DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8060311

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) was a pandemic that caused high morbidity and mortality worldwide. The COVID-19 vaccine was expected to be a game-changer for the pandemic. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 cases and vaccination in Thailand during 2021. An association between vaccination and case rates was estimated with potential confounders at ecological levels (color zones, curfews set by provincial authorities, tourism, and migrant movements) considering time lags at two, four, six, and eight weeks after vaccination. A spatial panel model for bivariate data was used to explore the relationship between case rates and each variable and included only a two-week lag after vaccination for each variable in the multivariate analyses. In 2021, Thailand had 1,965,023 cumulative cases and 45,788,315 total administered first vaccination doses (63.60%). High cases and vaccination rates were found among 31-45-year-olds. Vaccination rates had a slightly positive association with case rates due to the allocation of hot-spot pandemic areas in the early period. The proportion of migrants and color zones measured had positive associations with case rates at the provincial level. The proportion of tourists had a negative association. Vaccinations should be provided to migrants, and collaboration between tourism and public health should prepare for the new era of tourism.