Modeling COVID-19 vaccine booster-elicited antibody response and impact of infection history

• Published in: Vaccine Vol. 41; no. 52; pp. 7655 - 7662
• Main Authors: Nishiyama, Takara, Miyamatsu, Yuichiro, Park, Hyeongki, Nakamura, Naotoshi, Yokokawa Shibata, Risa, Iwami, Shingo, Nagasaki, Yoji
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier Ltd 18.12.2023; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Allergy and Immunology; Antibodies; Antibodies, Viral; Antibody Formation; Antibody response; Booster vaccination; COVID-19; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 infection; COVID-19 Vaccines; domain; health services; Humans; IgG(RBD); Immunization, Secondary; Immunoglobulin G; Infections; issues and policy; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical model; Mathematical models; Medical personnel; mRNA vaccine; Normal distribution; Ordinary differential equations; Pandemics; Parameter estimation; Proteins; Quantitative analysis; SARS-CoV-2; secondary immunization; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; vaccination; Vaccines; Viral diseases; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Mathematical model; Booster vaccination; IgG(RBD); mRNA vaccine
• ISSN: 0264-410X; 1873-2518; 1873-2518
• DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.11.040

The 3-dose COVID-19 vaccine (booster vaccination) has been offered worldwide. As booster vaccinations continue, it is important to understand the antibody dynamics elicited by booster vaccination in order to evaluate and develop vaccination needs and strategies. Here, we investigated longitudinal data by monitoring IgG antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD) in health care workers. We extended our previously developed mathematical model to booster vaccines and successfully fitted antibody titers over time in the absence and presence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Quantitative analysis using our mathematical model indicated that anti-RBD IgG titers increase to a comparable extent after booster vaccination, regardless of the presence or absence of infection, but infection history extends the duration of antibody response by 1.28 times. Such a mathematical modeling approach can be used to inform future vaccination strategies on the basis of an individual's immune history. Our simple quantitative approach can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.