Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 4759 - 9
• Main Authors: Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Hultman, Nathan, Edwards, Morgan R, He, Linlang, Sen, Arijit, Surana, Kavita, McJeon, Haewon, Iyer, Gokul, Patel, Pralit, Yu, Sha, Nace, Ted, Shearer, Christine
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Nature Publishing Group 18.10.2019; Nature Publishing Group UK; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; climate-change mitigation; climate-change policy; Coal; Coal-fired power plants; Construction; Construction planning; Electric power generation; energy infrastructure; energy modelling; energy policy; Power plants; Retirement
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12618-3

A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.