Modeling the Impact of Global Tuberculosis Control Strategies

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 95; no. 23; pp. 13881 - 13886
• Main Authors: Christopher J. L. Murray, Salomon, Joshua A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 10.11.1998; National Acad Sciences; National Academy of Sciences; The National Academy of Sciences
• Subjects: Biological Sciences; Communicable Disease Control; Death; Disease models; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Health care; Humans; Infections; International; Mathematical models; Models, Biological; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Mycobacterium tuberculosis; Pulmonary tuberculosis; Social impact; Tuberculosis; Tuberculosis - epidemiology; Tuberculosis - prevention & control; Tuberculosis vaccine; Vaccination; World Health Organization
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.95.23.13881

An epidemiological model of tuberculosis has been developed and applied to five regions of the world. Globally, 6.7 million new cases of tuberculosis and 2.4 million deaths from tuberculosis are estimated for 1998. Based on current trends in uptake of the World Health Organization's strategy of directly observed treatment, short-course, we expect a total of 225 million new cases and 79 million deaths from tuberculosis between 1998 and 2030. Active case-finding by using mass miniature radiography could save 23 million lives over this period. A single contact treatment for tuberculosis could avert 24 million cases and 11 million deaths; combined with active screening, it could reduce mortality by nearly 40%. A new vaccine with 50% efficacy could lower incidence by 36 million cases and mortality by 9 million deaths. Support for major extensions to global tuberculosis control strategies will occur only if the size of the problem and the potential for action are recognized more widely.