FORECASTING QUARTERLY AGGREGATE CRIME SERIES

In this paper we assess the forecasting performance of quarterly economic models of aggregate property and personal crime. We show that models that include long‐run relationships between crime and its economic determinants tend to generate inaccurate forecasts, and attribute this to structural chang...

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Published inThe Manchester school Vol. 73; no. 6; pp. 709 - 727
Main Authors CLEMENTS, MICHAEL P., WITT, ROBERT
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2005
University of Manchester
SeriesManchester School
Subjects
Accuracy
Crime
Econometric models
Economic models
Forecasting
Forecasts
Property
Risk
Studies
Time series
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Summary:In this paper we assess the forecasting performance of quarterly economic models of aggregate property and personal crime. We show that models that include long‐run relationships between crime and its economic determinants tend to generate inaccurate forecasts, and attribute this to structural change. The forecast performance of the economic models is compared with that of time‐series models, and forecast encompassing tests are reported.
Bibliography:istex:1D0D272E580BE6218248C7A53E91CADC959A62FB
Manuscript received 26.11.03; final version received 10.2.05.
ark:/67375/WNG-CDNZP0KG-T
ArticleID:MANC473
The computations recorded in this paper were carried out using PcGive version 10; see Hendry and Doornik (2001). We are grateful to the Home Office for making the crime data available, and acknowledge the helpful comments of a referee on an earlier draft.
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ISSN:1463-6786
1467-9957
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00473.x