FORECASTING QUARTERLY AGGREGATE CRIME SERIES
In this paper we assess the forecasting performance of quarterly economic models of aggregate property and personal crime. We show that models that include long‐run relationships between crime and its economic determinants tend to generate inaccurate forecasts, and attribute this to structural chang...
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Published in | The Manchester school Vol. 73; no. 6; pp. 709 - 727 |
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Main Authors | , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.12.2005
University of Manchester |
Series | Manchester School |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | In this paper we assess the forecasting performance of quarterly economic models of aggregate property and personal crime. We show that models that include long‐run relationships between crime and its economic determinants tend to generate inaccurate forecasts, and attribute this to structural change. The forecast performance of the economic models is compared with that of time‐series models, and forecast encompassing tests are reported. |
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Bibliography: | istex:1D0D272E580BE6218248C7A53E91CADC959A62FB Manuscript received 26.11.03; final version received 10.2.05. ark:/67375/WNG-CDNZP0KG-T ArticleID:MANC473 The computations recorded in this paper were carried out using PcGive version 10; see Hendry and Doornik (2001). We are grateful to the Home Office for making the crime data available, and acknowledge the helpful comments of a referee on an earlier draft. ObjectType-Article-2 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 1463-6786 1467-9957 |
DOI: | 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00473.x |