基于H-P滤波及回归模型的江苏省粮食供需平衡分析

利用EViews6.0计量学分析软件,对江苏省过去21年的粮食供给和需求变动情况进行了统计分析,应用H-P滤波方法建立了粮食需求与供给的预测模型,结果显示,模型拟合精度非常高;对未来5年粮食供需的结果表明,粮食供需基本平衡,但是,随着人们粮食需求的不断增加,粮食安全将面临挑战,因此,提出了相应的对策建议以缓解粮食供需矛盾。...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in江西农业学报 Vol. 24; no. 8; pp. 166 - 170
Main Author 刘小川 张沛琪 朱利群 卞新民
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院,江苏南京,210095%南京农业大学农学院,江苏南京,210095%南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院,江苏南京210095 2012
南京农业大学农学院,江苏南京210095
Subjects
H-P滤波
建议
江苏省
粮食供需平衡
预测分析
预测分析
建议
粮食供需平衡
H-P滤波
江苏省
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-8581
DOI10.3969/j.issn.1001-8581.2012.08.048

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Summary:利用EViews6.0计量学分析软件,对江苏省过去21年的粮食供给和需求变动情况进行了统计分析,应用H-P滤波方法建立了粮食需求与供给的预测模型,结果显示,模型拟合精度非常高;对未来5年粮食供需的结果表明,粮食供需基本平衡,但是,随着人们粮食需求的不断增加,粮食安全将面临挑战,因此,提出了相应的对策建议以缓解粮食供需矛盾。
Bibliography:36-1124/S
LIU Xiao - chuan , ZHANG Pei - qi, ZHU Li - qun, BIAN Xin - min （ 1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China; 2. College of Agronomy, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China）
By using metrological analysis software EViews6.0, the author analyzed the grain supply - demand balance during the past 21 years in Jiangsu province, and established the grain supply and demand prediction model based on the application of H- P fil- ter method. The results showed that the simulative precision of the established model was very high. The predictive results of the grain supply - demand in the future 5 years indicated that the grain supply and demand was basically balanced; however, along with the con- tinuous increase in grain demand by the people, the food security would face a huge challenge. Therefore, the author put forward the relevant advices for alleviating the contradiction between grain supply and demand.
Grain supply - demand bal
ISSN:1001-8581
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-8581.2012.08.048