基于ARCH类模型的我国饲料价格波动分析

利用ARCH类模型对1995年以来我国育肥猪配合饲料、肉鸡配合饲料和蛋鸡配合饲料等月度价格的波动性、非对称性进行分析，结果表明：（1）3类饲料的价格均具有显著的异方差效应，其价格波动有显著的集簇性，在市场上不具有高风险高收益的特征；（2）饲料价格波动具有非对称性，其价格上涨信息所引发的波动比价格下降信息引发的波动更大。为平抑饲料价格波动影响，建议加强饲料市场监测预警、出台饲料价格补贴政策、积极推行畜禽产业一体化。...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in广东农业科学 Vol. 40; no. 17; pp. 216 - 219
Main Author 白裕兵 浦华 石自忠
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所,北京,100193%中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京,100081 2013
Subjects
ARCH类模型
价格波动
饲料
ARCH类模型
价格波动
饲料
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Summary:利用ARCH类模型对1995年以来我国育肥猪配合饲料、肉鸡配合饲料和蛋鸡配合饲料等月度价格的波动性、非对称性进行分析，结果表明：（1）3类饲料的价格均具有显著的异方差效应，其价格波动有显著的集簇性，在市场上不具有高风险高收益的特征；（2）饲料价格波动具有非对称性，其价格上涨信息所引发的波动比价格下降信息引发的波动更大。为平抑饲料价格波动影响，建议加强饲料市场监测预警、出台饲料价格补贴政策、积极推行畜禽产业一体化。
Bibliography:44-1267/S
This paper analyzes the price fluctuation of three compound feeds in China with ARCH-type model. The monthly data is from 1995 to 2012. The result shows that the price of feeds has the significant conditional heteroseedastieity. And its fluctuation takes on the significant volatility clustering. The feeds market do not has the characteristics of high-risk and high-reward. The price change of feed market caused by the information of price up fluctuates more sharply than the change caused by the price down, which means the price fluctuations have significant asymmetry. According to the above analysis, it was proposed that the research on feed price subsidy policy should be enhanced and the integration of livestock industry chain should be encouraged to stabilize the feed price.
feed; price fluctuation; ARCH-type model
BAI Yu-bingl, PU HuaI, SHI Zi-zhong2 （1.Institute of Animal Sciences ,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences ,Beijing 100193, China; 2.1nstitute of Agricultural Economics and Development
ISSN:1004-874X