Risk compensation and face mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic

Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inScientific reports Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 3174 - 11
Main Authors Yan, Youpei, Bayham, Jude, Richter, Aaron, Fenichel, Eli P.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 04.02.2021
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
692/699/255
692/700/1538
692/700/3934
704/844/843
Communicable Disease Control - legislation & jurisprudence
Compensation
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - prevention & control
Disease transmission
Face
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Masks - statistics & numerical data
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Protective behavior
Protective equipment
Restaurants - statistics & numerical data
Risk taking
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Social Behavior
United States
United States
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Summary:Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data and variation in the date that US states and counties issued face mask mandates as a set of natural experiments to investigate risk compensation behavior. We compare time at home and the number of visits to public locations before and after face mask orders conditional on multiple statistical controls. We find that face mask orders lead to risk compensation behavior. Americans subject to the mask orders spend 11–24 fewer minutes at home on average and increase visits to some commercial locations—most notably restaurants, which are a high-risk location. It is unclear if this would lead to a net increase or decrease in transmission. However, it is clear that mask orders would be an important part of an economic recovery if people otherwise overestimate the risk of visiting public places.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-82574-w