INSYDE: a synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost analysis

• Published in: Natural hazards and earth system sciences Vol. 16; no. 12; pp. 2577 - 2591
• Main Authors: Dottori, Francesco, Figueiredo, Rui, Martina, Mario L. V, Molinari, Daniela, Scorzini, Anna Rita
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 02.12.2016; Copernicus Publications
• Subjects: Analysis; Building damage; Buildings; Cost analysis; Dam influences; Damage assessment; Datasets; Economic analysis; Economic aspects; Economic models; Economics; Environmental risk; Flood damage; Flood management; Flood risk; Floods; Flooring; Flow velocity; Mathematical functions; Model testing; Risk assessment; Risk management; Sensitivity analysis; Structural painting; Surveys; Technical literature; Variables; Vulnerability; Italy
• ISSN: 1684-9981; 1561-8633; 1684-9981
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-2577-2016

Methodologies to estimate economic flood damages are increasingly important for flood risk assessment and management. In this work, we present a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys carried out for past flood events in Italy. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts and adapted to the actual knowledge of hazard and vulnerability variables. The model has been tested in a recent flood event in northern Italy. Validation results provided good estimates of post-event damages, with similar or superior performances when compared with other damage models available in the literature. In addition, a local sensitivity analysis was performed in order to identify the hazard variables that have more influence on damage assessment results.