National prevalence of smoking among adolescents at tobacco tax increase and COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, 2005–2022

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 7823
• Main Authors: Hong, Seohyun, Woo, Selin, Kim, Seokjun, Park, Jaeyu, Lee, Myeongcheol, Kim, Sunyoung, Koyanagi, Ai, Smith, Lee, Kim, Min Seo, López Sánchez, Guillermo F., Dragioti, Elena, Rahmati, Masoud, Fond, Guillaume, Boyer, Laurent, Oh, Jiyeon, Lee, Hojae, Yon, Dong Keon
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 03.04.2024; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 692/700; 692/700/1538; 692/700/478; Adolescent; Adolescents; ARIMA; Coefficients; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; Daily smokers; Ever smokers; Excise taxes; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Interrupted time series; Male; multidisciplinary; Nicotiana; Pandemics; Passive smoking; Prevalence; Republic of Korea - epidemiology; Risk taking; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Smoking; Smoking - epidemiology; Smoking Cessation - methods; Tax increases; Taxation; Taxes; Teenagers; Time series; Tobacco; Tobacco Products; Trends; Republic of Korea; South Korea; COVID-19; Ever smokers; Daily smokers; ARIMA; Adolescent; Tobacco tax; Interrupted time series; Smoking
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58446-4

Prior research has predominantly focused on the overall effects of the tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking behavior. However, there is a need to examine both the immediate and sustained associations of these two factors on subgroups of adolescents, employing an interrupted time-series model. We aimed to investigate the immediate and sustained association of tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking prevalence. This study utilized data from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey to analyze the prevalence of current smoking among all participants (CSP) and the prevalence of daily smoking among current smokers (DSP) of Korean adolescents (n = 1,159,995; mean, age 14.99; male 51.5%) over 18 years from 2005 to 2022. The study examined 18-year trends in CSP and DSP among Korean adolescents, emphasizing the influences of the 2015 tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic, using β coefficients and their differences (β diff ) from an interrupted time-series ARIMA model. While CSP exhibited a decreasing trend, DSP exhibited an increasing trend. Tobacco tax increase was associated with both the short and long terms in smoking prevalence, however, the short-term association on prevalence (CSP, − 3.076 [95% CI, − 3.707 to − 2.445]; DSP, − 4.112 [95% CI, − 6.488 to − 1.735]) was stronger. The pandemic was associated with an immediate increase in DSP (9.345 [95% CI, 5.285–13.406]). These effects were strongest among adolescents from low economic status and those exposed to familial secondhand smoking. Supportive programs for adolescents in low-income families will help overcome the effects associated with the pandemic. As a tobacco tax increase was associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence, this could be one method to overcome the effects of the pandemic.