Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China

The disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity, employment and overall economic growth. Building scenarios of the economy's vulnerability to these disturbances...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEnergy policy Vol. 38; no. 6; pp. 2846 - 2857
Main Authors Gnansounou, Edgard, Dong, Jun
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2010
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
SeriesEnergy Policy
Subjects
Applied sciences
China
Economic activity
Economic data
Economic impact
Economic impact analysis
Economy's vulnerability Energy supply China
Economy’s vulnerability
Energy
Energy consumption
Energy economics
Energy planning
Energy policy
Energy resources
Energy supply
Exact sciences and technology
General, economic and professional studies
Impact analysis
Methodology. Modelling
Power supply
Studies
Asia
China
China, People's Rep
Economy’s vulnerability
Energy supply
China
Case study
Energy
Economy's vulnerability
Supply
Vulnerability
Modeling
Logic model
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Summary:The disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity, employment and overall economic growth. Building scenarios of the economy's vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration. In this paper, a logic-based model (LBM) is developed, which allows for defining, exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy's vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework. The proposed model is illustrated with the case of China. After developing the general framework, three particular scenarios are investigated. Based on the case study, the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed, and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed. Finally, some recommendations for further improvements are made.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 23
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.017