Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015

Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R₀ mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 114; no. 1; pp. 119 - 124
Main Authors Caminade, Cyril, Turner, Joanne, Metelmann, Soeren, Hesson, Jenny C., Blagrove, Marcus S. C., Solomon, Tom, Morse, Andrew P., Baylis, Matthew
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 03.01.2017
Subjects
Ae. aegypti
Ae. albopictus
Aedes
Aedes aegypti
Aedes albopictus
Animals
Biological Sciences
Disease transmission
El Nino
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Haplorhini
Humans
Models, Statistical
Mosquito Vectors
Ocean currents
R-0 model
Risk
Risk factors
Temperature
Uganda
Zika Virus
Zika Virus Infection - epidemiology
Zika Virus Infection - mortality
Zika Virus Infection - transmission
Uganda
Zika virus
El Niño
Ae. albopictus
R0 model
Ae. aegypti
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Summary:Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R₀ mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950–2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015–2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.
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Edited by Anthony A. James, University of California, Irvine, CA, and approved November 14, 2016 (received for review September 2, 2016)
Author contributions: C.C., T.S., A.P.M., and M.B. designed research; C.C., J.T., and S.M. performed research; J.T. developed the analytical framework of the model; C.C., J.T., S.M., and M.S.C.B. analyzed data; J.C.H. conducted the large literature review; and C.C. and M.B. wrote the paper with input from all coauthors.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1614303114