From severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus to 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak: similarities in the early epidemics and prediction of future trends

• Published in: Chinese medical journal Vol. 133; no. 9; pp. 1112 - 1114
• Main Authors: Chen, Ze-Liang, Zhang, Wen-Jun, Lu, Yi, Guo, Cheng, Guo, Zhong-Min, Liao, Cong-Hui, Zhang, Xi, Zhang, Yi, Han, Xiao-Hu, Li, Qian-Lin, Lu, Jia-Hai
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: China The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license 05.05.2020; Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Ovid Technologies; Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China%Department of Biological Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China%Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA%Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA%Animal Experiment Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China%One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China%Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China; One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China; Wolters Kluwer Health; Wolters Kluwer
• Subjects: Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - transmission; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; Disease transmission; Epidemics; Festivals; Hospitals; Humans; Infections; Infectious diseases; Medical personnel; Pandemics; Pathogens; Patients; Pneumonia; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission; SARS-CoV-2; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - epidemiology; Trends; China
• ISSN: 0366-6999; 2542-5641; 2542-5641
• DOI: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000000776

Several days later, seven medical staff members in the department that treated these patients developed symptoms. The incidence among medical staff in the respiratory care department of a university affiliated hospital in Guangzhou was 61.7% (29/47), that is, more than half of the medical staff were infected while treating their patients. According to the case numbers and the developmental characteristics, the SARS epidemic can be roughly divided into four stages: stage 1, from November 16, 2002 to January 31, 2003; stage 2, from February 1 to March 2, 2003; stage 3, from March 3 to April 2; and stage 4, after April 4 [Supplementary Figure 2D, http://links.lww.com/CM9/A209]. Because we are now in the early stage of the outbreak, we must be prepared for subsequent larger-scale outbreaks and predict the scale of the outbreak. Since 2019-nCoV is highly similar to SARS-CoV, some important characteristics of SARS-CoV could be used for this prediction.