Landscape drives zoonotic malaria prevalence in non-human primates

• Published in: eLife Vol. 12
• Main Authors: Johnson, Emilia, Sunil Kumar Sharma, Reuben, Ruiz Cuenca, Pablo, Byrne, Isabel, Salgado-Lynn, Milena, Suraya Shahar, Zarith, Col Lin, Lee, Zulkifli, Norhadila, Dilaila Mohd Saidi, Nor, Drakeley, Chris, Matthiopoulos, Jason, Nelli, Luca, Fornace, Kimberly
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England eLife Science Publications, Ltd 16.05.2024; eLife Sciences Publications Ltd; eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
• Subjects: Analysis; Animal models; Animals; Asia, Southeastern - epidemiology; Deforestation; disease ecology; Disease transmission; Ecology; Ecosystem; Epidemiology; Epidemiology and Global Health; forest fragmentation; Forests; Geographical variations; Geospatial data; Habitat fragmentation; Habitats; Humans; Infection; Infections; Infectious diseases; Land use; landscape change; macaca fascicularis; Malaria; Malaria - epidemiology; Malaria - parasitology; Malaria - transmission; Monkeys & apes; Pathogens; Plasmodium knowlesi; Prevalence; Primate Diseases - epidemiology; Primate Diseases - parasitology; Primate Diseases - transmission; Primates; Primates - parasitology; Public health; Remote sensing; Risk factors; Statistical models; Surveys; Tropical diseases; Vectors (Biology); Wildlife; Zoonoses; Zoonoses - epidemiology; Zoonoses - parasitology; Zoonoses - transmission; Asia, Southeastern; Southeast Asia; Malaysia; Indonesia; Borneo; Plasmodium knowlesi; global health; epidemiology; ecology; landscape change; disease ecology; forest fragmentation; macaca fascicularis; malaria
• ISSN: 2050-084X; 2050-084X
• DOI: 10.7554/eLife.88616

Zoonotic disease dynamics in wildlife hosts are rarely quantified at macroecological scales due to the lack of systematic surveys. Non-human primates (NHPs) host a zoonotic malaria of public health concern and the main barrier to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia. Understanding of regional infection dynamics in wildlife is limited. Here, we systematically assemble reports of NHP and investigate geographic determinants of prevalence in reservoir species. Meta-analysis of 6322 NHPs from 148 sites reveals that prevalence is heterogeneous across Southeast Asia, with low overall prevalence and high estimates for Malaysian Borneo. We find that regions exhibiting higher prevalence in NHPs overlap with human infection hotspots. In wildlife and humans, parasite transmission is linked to land conversion and fragmentation. By assembling remote sensing data and fitting statistical models to prevalence at multiple spatial scales, we identify novel relationships between in NHPs and forest fragmentation. This suggests that higher prevalence may be contingent on habitat complexity, which would begin to explain observed geographic variation in parasite burden. These findings address critical gaps in understanding regional epidemiology and indicate that prevalence in simian reservoirs may be a key spatial driver of human spillover risk.