Modelling the climatic suitability of Chagas disease vectors on a global scale

• Published in: eLife Vol. 9
• Main Authors: Eberhard, Fanny E, Cunze, Sarah, Kochmann, Judith, Klimpel, Sven
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England eLife Science Publications, Ltd 06.05.2020; eLife Sciences Publications Ltd; eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
• Subjects: Animals; Biodiversity; Chagas disease; Chagas Disease - epidemiology; Chagas Disease - parasitology; Chagas Disease - transmission; Climate; Coastal zone; Coasts; Cruz, Oswaldo; Diseases; ecological niche modelling; Ecology; Ecosystem; ensemble forecasting; Geographical distribution; Global Health; Humans; Insect Vectors - parasitology; Models, Theoretical; Niches; species distribution modelling; Species diversity; Triatoma rubrofasciata; triatominae; Triatominae - parasitology; Trypanosoma cruzi - pathogenicity; Vectors (Biology); South America; Brazil; Colombia; Central America; Latin America; United States > US; Sri Lanka; Philippines; Africa; Malaysia; Madagascar; Bolivia; Florida; India; Venezuela; New Guinea; Southeast Asia; Mexico; Australia; Central Africa; Peru; East Africa; Indonesia; ecological niche modelling; ecology; triatominae; chagas disease; triatoma rubrofasciata; species distribution modelling; ensemble forecasting
• ISSN: 2050-084X; 2050-084X
• DOI: 10.7554/eLife.52072

The Triatominae are vectors for , the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, , has already been detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21°N and 24°S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species ( , ) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.