Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 729; p. 138705
• Main Authors: Ahmadi, Mohsen, Sharifi, Abbas, Dorosti, Shadi, Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, Saeid, Ghanbari, Negar
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 10.08.2020; Published by Elsevier B.V
• Subjects: Betacoronavirus; Climate; climatic factors; climatology; Coronavirus infections; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; disease susceptibility; human diseases; humidity; Iran; Iran - epidemiology; Meteorology; Orthocoronavirinae; Outbreak; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; population density; quarantine; SARS-CoV-2; Sensitivity analysis; solar radiation; temperature; viruses; wind speed; Iran; COVID-19; Climate; Outbreak; Sensitivity analysis; Iran
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138705

SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol’-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces. [Display omitted] •Geographical and Climatological parameter is assessed to study COVID-19 outbreak.•Population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection rate.•Humidity has a reverse relationship within the virus outbreak speed.•The outbreak at low speed of the wind is remarkable.•Solar radiation threats the virus's survival.