Quantifying the impact of uncertainty on threat management for biodiversity

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 3570 - 14
• Main Authors: Nicol, Sam, Brazill-Boast, James, Gorrod, Emma, McSorley, Adam, Peyrard, Nathalie, Chadès, Iadine
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 08.08.2019; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/2178; 704/158/1144; 704/158/672; Animals; Biodiversity; Computer Science; Conservation of Natural Resources - economics; Conservation of Natural Resources - methods; Ecology - economics; Ecology - methods; Fires; Humanities and Social Sciences; Invasive animals; Invasive plants; Mathematics; Models, Theoretical; multidisciplinary; Plants; Recovery; Resource Allocation; Resource management; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Species; Uncertainty; Wildlife conservation
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11404-5

With inadequate resources to manage the threats facing biodiversity worldwide, achieving projected management outcomes is critical for efficient resource allocation and species recovery. Despite this, conservation plans to mitigate threats rarely articulate the likelihood of management success. Here we develop a general value of information approach to quantify the impact of uncertainty on 20 threatening processes affecting 976 listed species and communities. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive quantification of the impacts of uncertainty on threat management. We discover that, on average, removing uncertainty about management effectiveness could triple the gain in persistence achieved by managing under current uncertainty. Management of fire, invasive animals and a plant pathogen are most impeded by uncertainty; management of invasive plants is least impacted. Our results emphasise the tremendous importance of reducing uncertainty about species responses to management, and show that failure to consider management effectiveness wastes resources and impedes species recovery. Conservation planning rarely considers the uncertainty in management outcomes. Here, the authors develop a value of information approach to quantify uncertainty of threat management success and show that it can improve efficiency of interventions across a large sample of threatened species.