Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic

• Published in: PeerJ (San Francisco, CA) Vol. 10; p. e13509
• Main Authors: Jenkins, Tom L, Stevens, Jamie R
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States PeerJ. Ltd 27.05.2022; PeerJ, Inc; PeerJ Inc
• Subjects: Alcyonium digitatum; Analysis; Animal behavior; Animals; Anthozoa; Bathymetry; Biodiversity; Biogeography; Climate Change; Climate Change Biology; Datasets; Dead man’s fingers; Ecology; Ecosystem; English Channel; Entropy; Environmental conditions; Eunicella verrucosa; Geographical distribution; Global temperature changes; Habitats; Humans; Irish Sea; Marine Biology; Maxent; Norway; Ocean floor; Population density; Range extension; Species; Temperature; Variables; Velocity; Norway; United Kingdom; Netherlands; France; Atlantic Ocean; Bay of Biscay; United Kingdom > UK; United States > US; Ireland; Wales; England; Dead man’s fingers; Maxent; Species distribution modelling; Pink sea fan; Eunicella verrucosa; English Channel; Alcyonium digitatum; Irish Sea; North Sea; Environmental niche modelling
• ISSN: 2167-8359; 2167-8359
• DOI: 10.7717/peerj.13509

Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan ( ) and dead man's fingers ( ), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of and the middle-northern range of . The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951-2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for , where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081-2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for , although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For , this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with , there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region.