impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 93; no. 3-4; pp. 379 - 388
• Main Authors: Dasgupta, Susmita, Laplante, Benoit, Meisner, Craig, Wheeler, David, Yan, Jianping
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands 01.04.2009; Springer Netherlands; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agriculture; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Coasts; Comparative analysis; Developing countries; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Economic indicators; Emission standards; Environmental impact; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; GDP; Geographic information systems; Global warming; Gross Domestic Product; Ice sheets; LDCs; Marine; Meteorology; Physics of the oceans; Population; Sea level; Software; Surface waves, tides and sea level. Seiches; Wetlands; Greenland ice sheet; Arctic region; polar regions; West Antarctica; Antarctica; Antarctic ice sheet; Greenland; Antarctica, West Antarctica, West Antarctic Ice Sheet; AN, Greenland; Gross Domestic Product; Digital Elevation Model; Exposure Indicator; Nile Delta; Outlet Glacier; risk assessment; Century 21st; economic impacts; ablation; climate warming; inundations; geographic information systems; Impact study; vulnerability; greenhouse gas; Dynamical climatology; environment impact; ice sheets; Spatial distribution; global change; prediction; Air pollution; Third World; Social impact; sea level; climate change
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3-5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1-5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.