Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 30; no. 5; pp. 753 - 765
• Main Authors: Kosmider, Rowena D, Nally, Pádraig, Simons, Robin R.L, Brouwer, Adam, Cheung, Susan, Snary, Emma L, Wooldridge, Marion
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Malden, USA Blackwell Publishing Inc 01.05.2010; Blackwell Publishing Ltd
• Subjects: Attribution; Beef; Diseases; Escherichia coli Infections - etiology; Escherichia coli Infections - microbiology; Escherichia coli O157 - isolation & purification; Food policy; Food safety; Food security; Human exposure; Humans; Infections; Meat; Meat products; Meat Products - microbiology; Public health; Risk Assessment; Risk management; Studies; VTEC O157; British Isles
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01317.x

To address the risk posed to human health by the consumption of VTEC O157 within contaminated pork, lamb, and beef products within Great Britain, a quantitative risk assessment model has been developed. This model aims to simulate the prevalence and amount of VTEC O157 in different meat products at consumption within a single model framework by adapting previously developed models. The model is stochastic in nature, enabling both variability (natural variation between animals, carcasses, products) and uncertainty (lack of knowledge) about the input parameters to be modeled. Based on the model assumptions and data, it is concluded that the prevalence of VTEC O157 in meat products (joints and mince) at consumption is low (i.e., <0.04%). Beef products, particularly beef burgers, present the highest estimated risk with an estimated eight out of 100,000 servings on average resulting in human infection with VTEC O157.