Evaluating credit risk and loan performance in online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending

• Published in: Applied economics Vol. 47; no. 1; pp. 54 - 70
• Main Authors: Emekter, Riza, Tu, Yanbin, Jirasakuldech, Benjamas, Lu, Min
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Routledge 01.01.2015; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Credit; credit grade; Credit risk; Credit scoring; Debt; Default; default risk; FICO score; Interest rates; Loans; Microfinance; Mortality; Peer to peer computing; Peer-to-Peer lending; Probability; Risk assessment; Studies
• ISSN: 0003-6846; 1466-4283
• DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.962222

Online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending has emerged recently. This micro loan market could offer certain benefits to both borrowers and lenders. Using data from the Lending Club, which is one of the popular online P2P lending houses, this article explores the P2P loan characteristics, evaluates their credit risk and measures loan performances. We find that credit grade, debt-to-income ratio, FICO score and revolving line utilization play an important role in loan defaults. Loans with lower credit grade and longer duration are associated with high mortality rate. The result is consistent with the Cox Proportional Hazard test which suggests that the hazard rate or the likelihood of the loan default increases with the credit risk of the borrowers. Finally, we find that higher interest rates charged on the high-risk borrowers are not enough to compensate for higher probability of the loan default. The Lending Club must find ways to attract high FICO score and high-income borrowers in order to sustain their businesses.