Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 3822
• Main Authors: Le, Phong V. V., Randerson, James T., Willett, Rebecca, Wright, Stephen, Smyth, Padhraic, Guilloteau, Clément, Mamalakis, Antonios, Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 28.06.2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/106/694/1108; 704/106/694/2786; Climate adaptation; Climate change; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Humanities and Social Sciences; multidisciplinary; Precipitation; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Sea surface temperature; Seasonal variations; Water management; Winter
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39463-9

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management. This study shows that climate change will alter the sea surface temperature - precipitation relationships and our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100.