An operational flood warning system for poorly gauged basins: demonstration in the Guadalhorce basin (Spain)

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 71; no. 3; pp. 1355 - 1378
• Main Authors: Versini, P.-A., Berenguer, M., Corral, C., Sempere-Torres, D.
• Format: Journal Article Publication
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.04.2014; Springer; Springer Nature B.V; Springer Verlag
• Subjects: Basins; Calibration; Civil defense; Civil Engineering; Discharge measurement; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Emergency preparedness; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Enginyeria civil; Environment and Society; Environmental Engineering; Environmental Management; Environmental Sciences; Exact sciences and technology; Flood forecasting; Flood warning systems; Flood warnings; Floods; Flow measurement; Forecasting; Freshwater; Geologia; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Guadalhorce (Andalusia : Riu); Gualhorce basin; Hidrologia; Hidrometeorologia; Hydrogeology; Hydrology; Hydrometeorology; Location; Mathematical models; Measurement; Meteorology; Natural Hazards; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Paper; Radar; Rainfall; Rainfall-runoff relationships; Risk management; Sciences of the Universe; Spain; Ungauged basin; Watersheds; Àrees temàtiques de la UPC; Iberian Peninsula; Southern Europe; Europe; Spain; Hydrology; Ungauged basin; Warning system; Flood; floods; models; rainfall; maps; runoff; inundations; drainage basins; management; plains; discharge; calibration; radar methods; performances; flow; warning system; hydrology; ungauged basin
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0949-7

This paper deals with the presentation of a flood warning system (GFWS) developed for the specific characteristics of the Guadalhorce basin (3,200 km 2 , SE of Spain), which is poorly gauged and often affected by flash and plain floods. Its complementarity with the European flood alert system (EFAS) has also been studied. At a lower resolution, EFAS is able to provide a flood forecast several days in advance. The GFWS is adapted to the use of distributed rainfall maps (such as radar rainfall estimates), and discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall–runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model parameters calibrated on a small watershed have been transferred in most of the basin area. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings and fulfills the requirements of ungauged basins. This work reports on the performance of the system on two recent rainfall events that caused several inundations. These results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that despite its limitations, a simple rainfall–runoff model and a relatively simple calibration could be useful for event risk management. Moreover, with low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS.