Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 11; no. 1; p. 537
• Main Authors: Chen, Guangzhao, Li, Xia, Liu, Xiaoping, Chen, Yimin, Liang, Xun, Leng, Jiye, Xu, Xiaocong, Liao, Weilin, Qiu, Yue'an, Wu, Qianlian, Huang, Kangning
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Nature Publishing Group 27.01.2020; Nature Publishing Group UK; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: Agricultural land; Agricultural production; Climate change; Crop production; Economic development; Economic growth; Environmental impact; Expansion; Food; Food production; Geography; Laboratories; Land area; Land development; Long-term effects; Population decline; Public policy; Regions; Roads & highways; Simulation; Socioeconomics; Spatial discrimination; Spatial resolution; Trends; Urban areas; Urban populations; Urban sprawl
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x

Despite its small land coverage, urban land and its expansion have exhibited profound impacts on global environments. Here, we present the scenario projections of global urban land expansion under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our projections feature a fine spatial resolution of 1 km to preserve spatial details. The projections reveal that although global urban land continues to expand rapidly before the 2040s, China and many other Asian countries are expected to encounter substantial pressure from urban population decline after the 2050s. Approximately 50-63% of the newly expanded urban land is expected to occur on current croplands. Global crop production will decline by approximately 1-4%, corresponding to the annual food needs for a certain crop of 122-1389 million people. These findings stress the importance of governing urban land development as a key measure to mitigate its negative impacts on food production.