Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau

• Published in: AIDS (London) Vol. 29; no. 18; pp. 2479 - 2486
• Main Authors: Fryer, Helen R, Van Tienen, Carla, Van Der Loeff, Maarten Schim, Aaby, Peter, Da Silva, Zacarias J, Whittle, Hilton, Rowland-Jones, Sarah L, de Silva, Thushan I
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Copyright Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc 28.11.2015; Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Disease Eradication; Epidemiology and Social; Female; Guinea-Bissau - epidemiology; HIV Infections - epidemiology; HIV Infections - virology; HIV-2 - isolation & purification; Human immunodeficiency virus 2; Humans; Incidence; Lentivirus; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Theoretical; Prevalence; Rural Population; Young Adult; Guinea-Bissau; Guinea
• ISSN: 0269-9370; 1473-5571
• DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000844

OBJECTIVE:This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly. DESIGN:A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau. METHODS:An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections. RESULTS:HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly. CONCLUSION:HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.