A Bayesian Measure of the Probability of False Discovery in Genetic Epidemiology Studies

In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probab...

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Published in	American journal of human genetics Vol. 81; no. 2; pp. 208 - 227
Main Author	Wakefield, Jon
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	Chicago, IL Elsevier Inc 01.08.2007 University of Chicago Press Cell Press American Society of Human Genetics
Subjects	Bayes Theorem Bayesian analysis Biological and medical sciences Biostatistics Data Interpretation, Statistical Epidemiologic Measurements Epidemiology False Positive Reactions Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Gene Frequency General aspects. Genetic counseling Genetics Genetics of eukaryotes. Biological and molecular evolution Linkage Disequilibrium Lung cancer Medical genetics Medical sciences Models, Statistical Molecular and cellular biology Probability Human Genetics Epidemiology Probability measure
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Abstract	In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study.
AbstractList	In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthlness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, It is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondlscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study. In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study. In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study. In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study.In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study. In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for assessing the noteworthiness of an observed association. BFDP shares the ease of calculation of the recently proposed false-positive report probability (FPRP) but uses more information, has a noteworthy threshold defined naturally in terms of the costs of false discovery and nondiscovery, and has a sound methodological foundation. In addition, in a multiple-testing situation, it is straightforward to estimate the expected numbers of false discoveries and false nondiscoveries. We provide an in-depth discussion of FPRP, including a comparison with the q value, and examine the empirical behavior of these measures, along with BFDP, via simulation. Finally, we use BFDP to assess the association between 131 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and lung cancer in a case-control study.
Author	Wakefield, Jon
AuthorAffiliation	From the Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: From the Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Jon surname: Wakefield fullname: Wakefield, Jon email: jonno@u.washington.edu organization: From the Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle
BackLink	http://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=18973902$$DView record in Pascal Francis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17668372$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet	In light of the vast amounts of genomic data that are now being generated, we propose a new measure, the Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP), for...
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SubjectTerms	Bayes Theorem Bayesian analysis Biological and medical sciences Biostatistics Data Interpretation, Statistical Epidemiologic Measurements Epidemiology False Positive Reactions Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Gene Frequency General aspects. Genetic counseling Genetics Genetics of eukaryotes. Biological and molecular evolution Linkage Disequilibrium Lung cancer Medical genetics Medical sciences Models, Statistical Molecular and cellular biology Probability
Title	A Bayesian Measure of the Probability of False Discovery in Genetic Epidemiology Studies
URI	https://dx.doi.org/10.1086/519024 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17668372 https://www.proquest.com/docview/219591833 https://www.proquest.com/docview/20572158 https://www.proquest.com/docview/68108547 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC1950810
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