Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate

• Published in: The Journal of agricultural science Vol. 149; no. 2; pp. 145 - 157
• Main Author: Vucetic, V
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 01.04.2011
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agronomy; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Artificial intelligence; Biological and medical sciences; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate Change and Agriculture; Climate effects; Corn; Crop production; Crop yield; Evapotranspiration; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Global warming; Solar radiation; Zea mays; Southern Europe; Balkan Peninsula; Europe; Mediterranean Basin; Croatia; Monocotyledones; Climate; Zea mays; Gramineae; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; Modeling; Cereal crop
• ISSN: 0021-8596; 1469-5146
• DOI: 10.1017/S0021859610000808

Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop–weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb–Maksimir station covering the period 1949–2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1·4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4·5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years. Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO2 conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1·07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0·92), compared with weather data from the period 1949–2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO2 concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes suggested that the maize growth period would shorten by c. 1 month and maize yield would decrease by 9%, with the main reason for maize yield reduction in Croatia being due to extremely warm conditions in the future climate.