A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 4; no. 4; pp. 287 - 291
• Main Authors: Challinor, A. J., Watson, J., Lobell, D. B., Howden, S. M., Smith, D. R., Chhetri, N.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.04.2014; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/694/2739; Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage; Agricultural and forest meteorology; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climatology, meteorology; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Corn; Crop yield; Earth, ocean, space; Environment; Environmental impact; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Food security; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agronomy. Plant production; Generalities. Techniques. Climatology. Meteorology. Climatic models of plant production; letter; Meteorology; Oryza sativa; Rice; Triticum aestivum; Tropical environments; Wheat; Zea mays; Monocotyledones; Zea mays; climate warming; tropical zone; adaptation; Agroclimatology; Forecast model; Cereal crop; Metaanalysis; agriculture; Oryza sativa; Bioclimatology; Triticum; temperate zone; Gramineae; global change; Agricultural production; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; Yield; climate change
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2153

A comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are now reported in a meta-analysis. Findings suggest that, without measures to adapt to changing conditions, aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming. Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society 1 , 2 . The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses 3 have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7–15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.