How to choose the best control strategy? Mathematical models as a tool for pre-intervention evaluation on a macroparasitic disease

• Published in: PLoS neglected tropical diseases Vol. 14; no. 10; p. e0008789
• Main Authors: Fesce, Elisa, Romeo, Claudia, Chinchio, Eleonora, Ferrari, Nicola
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 01.10.2020; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Animals; Anthelmintic agents; Antiparasitic agents; Biology and Life Sciences; Contamination; Control; COVID-19; Development and progression; Dynamics; Efficiency; Eggs; Health risks; Health services; Humans; Infection; Infectious diseases; Intervention; Investigations; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Medicine and Health Sciences; Models, Theoretical; Parasites; Parasites - physiology; Parasitic Diseases - parasitology; Parasitic Diseases - prevention & control; Parasitic Diseases - transmission; Population; Procyonidae; Public Health; Removal; Research and Analysis Methods; Simulation; Tropical diseases; Veterinary medicine; Zoonoses; Zoonoses - parasitology; Zoonoses - prevention & control; Zoonoses - transmission; Italy
• ISSN: 1935-2735; 1935-2727; 1935-2735
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008789

During the last century, emerging diseases have increased in number, posing a severe threat for human health. Zoonoses, in particular, represent the 60% of emerging diseases, and are a big challenge for public health due to the complexity of their dynamics. Mathematical models, by allowing an a priori analysis of dynamic systems and the simulation of different scenarios at once, may represent an efficient tool for the determination of factors and phenomena involved in zoonotic infection cycles, but are often underexploited in public health. In this context, we developed a deterministic mathematical model to compare the efficacy of different intervention strategies aimed at reducing environmental contamination by macroparasites, using raccoons (Procyon lotor) and their zoonotic parasite Bayilsascaris procyonis as a model system. The three intervention strategies simulated are raccoon depopulation, anthelmintic treatment of raccoons and faeces removal. Our results show that all these strategies are able to eliminate the parasite egg population from the environment, but they are effective only above specific threshold coverages. Host removal and anthelmintic treatment showed the fastest results in eliminating the egg population, but anthelmintic treatment requires a higher effort to reach an effective result compared to host removal. Our simulations show that mathematical models can help to shed light on the dynamics of communicable infectious diseases, and give specific guidelines to contain B. procyonis environmental contamination in native, as well as in new, areas of parasite emergence. In particular, the present study highlights that identifying in advance the appropriate treatment coverage is fundamental to achieve the desired results, allowing for the implementation of cost- and time-effective intervention strategies.