A general model for salmon run reconstruction that accounts for interception and differences in availability to harvest

• Published in: Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences Vol. 75; no. 3; pp. 439 - 451
• Main Authors: Cunningham, Curry J, Branch, Trevor A, Dann, Tyler H, Smith, Matt, Seeb, James E, Seeb, Lisa W, Hilborn, Ray
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Ottawa NRC Research Press 01.03.2018; Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press
• Subjects: Age; Age composition; Age structure; Animal reproduction; Availability; Chemotaxonomy; Distribution; Fish harvest; Fisheries; Fisheries management; Fishery management; Fishing; Fishing areas; Genetic aspects; Genetic markers; Harvest; Identification methods; Interception; Marine; Mathematical models; Methods; Molecular structure; Oncorhynchus nerka; Population (statistical); Population number; Population statistics; Reconstruction; Recruitment; Recruitment (fisheries); Salmon; Salmon culture; Salmon fisheries; Spawning; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Statistical models; Studies; Bristol Bay; United States > US; Alaska; INE, USA, Alaska, Bristol Bay
• ISSN: 0706-652X; 1205-7533
• DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2016-0360

Understanding population-specific spawner–recruit relationships is necessary for sustainable salmon management. Where multiple populations are harvested together, run reconstruction methods partition mixed-stock catches and allocate recruits back to their populations of origin. Traditional run reconstruction methods often use age composition data to inform catch partitioning. However age-only methods do not account for stock-specific differences in the availability of fish to harvest within fishing areas or the incidental harvest of nontarget stocks in nearby fishing areas. Advances in molecular genetic techniques permit genetic stock identification (GSI) of both contemporary and historical catch samples. We present a statistical model for salmon run reconstruction that utilizes both age composition and GSI data to estimate differences in the availability of stocks within, and interception rates among, terminal fisheries. When applied to the commercial sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) fishery in Bristol Bay, Alaska, new estimates of population productivity differed from those generated using previous age-only methods by 0.1%–155.1%, with stock-specific mean absolute percent differences of 9.7%–38.7% across years, underscoring the value of genetic data for run reconstruction. With more accurate run reconstruction methods, spawner–recruit relationships can be identified more precisely, thus providing more accurate management targets for salmon fisheries.