Independent Risk Factors for the Dynamic Development of COVID-19: A Retrospective Study

• Published in: International journal of general medicine Vol. 14; pp. 4349 - 4367
• Main Authors: Liu, Miaomiao, Jiang, Hua, Li, Yujuan, Li, Chunmei, Tan, Zhijun, Jin, Faguang, Zhang, Tao, Nan, Yandong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Macclesfield Dove Medical Press Limited 01.01.2021; Taylor & Francis Ltd; Dove; Dove Medical Press
• Subjects: Age; Cardiovascular disease; Cerebrovascular disease; Comparative analysis; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Diabetes; Diarrhea; Dyspnea; Fatalities; fatality; Fever; Gender; Headaches; Health aspects; Hospitalization; Hospitals; Hypertension; Intensive care; Laboratories; Length of stay; Medical prognosis; Medical research; Medicine, Experimental; mild/moderate; Mortality; Nausea; Original Research; progression; Respiratory diseases; Risk factors; severe/critical; Statistical analysis; Vomiting; China
• ISSN: 1178-7074; 1178-7074
• DOI: 10.2147/IJGM.S325112

Objective: To identify the risk factors for predicting the dynamic progression of COVID-19. Methods: A total of 2321 eligible patients were included in this study from February 4 to April 15, 2020. Two illness conditions, including mild/moderate (M/M) subtype to severe/critical (S/C) and S/C to fatality, were classified. Clinical message was collected and compared, respectively. Kaplan--Meier method, Cox regression model and risk score system were used to predict disease progression in S/C COVID-19. Results: A total of 112 of 1761 patients with M/M subtype were progressors (P) and 1649 non-progressors (NP). Increasing disease progression associated with higher levels of neutrophils count (HR=1.958, 95% CI=1.253-3.059, P=0.003), CK (HR=2.203, 95% CI=1.048-4.632, P=0.037), LDH (HR=3.309, 95% CI=2.083-5.256, P<0.001) and CRP (HR=2.575, 95% CI=1.638-4.049, P<0.001), and lower level of lymphocytes count (HR=1.549, 95% CI=1.018-2.355, P=0.041), as well as total lesion volume ratio greater than [greater than or equal to]10% (HR=2.286, 95% CI=1.451-3.601, P<0.001) on admission. In progression to fatality, 56 of the 672 S/C cases died and 616 survived. Increasing fatality associated with lower level of lymphocytes count (HR:2.060, 95% CI:1.000-4.242, P=0.050), higher levels of BUN (HR:2.715, 95% CI:1.539-4.790, P<0.001), CK-MB (HR:3.412, 95% CI:1.760-6.616, P<0.001), LDH (HR:5.578, 95% CI:2.317-13.427, P<0.001), and PT (HR:3.619, 95% CI:2.102-6.231, P<0.001). Furthermore, high risk of neutrophils count, lymphocytes count, CK, LDH, CRP, and total lesion volume ratio was powerfully correlated with the incidence of progression to S/C in patients with NS COVID-19 and high odds of lymphocytes count, BUN, CK-MB, LDH, and PT were significantly associated with death in patients with S/C COVID-19. In addition, the progression and mortality rates increased with increasing risk scores. Conclusion: Elevated LDH level and lymphopenia were independent predictors for COVID-19 sustainable management in classifying non-severe patients who progressed to severe condition and identifying S/C patients who deteriorated to fatal outcomes as well. Total lesion volume ratio [greater than or equal to]10% may provide early predictive evidence with COVID-19 patients at high risk of developing into S/C to improve prognosis. Keywords: COVID-19, mild/moderate, severe/critical, progression, fatality, risk factors