Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 369; no. 6500; pp. 208 - 211
• Main Authors: Salje, Henrik, Tran Kiem, Cécile, Lefrancq, Noémie, Courtejoie, Noémie, Bosetti, Paolo, Paireau, Juliette, Andronico, Alessio, Hozé, Nathanaël, Richet, Jehanne, Dubost, Claire-Lise, Le Strat, Yann, Lessler, Justin, Levy-Bruhl, Daniel, Fontanet, Arnaud, Opatowski, Lulla, Boelle, Pierre-Yves, Cauchemez, Simon
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 10.07.2020; American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Computer Science; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - immunology; Coronavirus Infections - mortality; Coronaviruses; Cost of Illness; COVID-19; Critical Care; Disease control; Disease transmission; Emerging diseases; Epidemiology; Female; France - epidemiology; Herd immunity; Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data; Human health and pathology; Humans; Immunity; Infectious diseases; Life Sciences; Male; Mathematical models; Middle Aged; Modeling and Simulation; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - immunology; Pneumonia, Viral - mortality; Population; Quarantine; Santé publique et épidémiologie; SARS Virus; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Social interactions; Statistics; Viral diseases; Young Adult; France; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Modeling Method; Epidemiology
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abc3517

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science , this issue p. 208 Analysis of COVID-19 epidemiological parameters in France shows clear age and sex patterns that are likely to be common to other countries. France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.