Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 4943 - 9
• Main Authors: Leclerc, Camille, Courchamp, Franck, Bellard, Céline
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 02.10.2020; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/2165; 631/158/851; Anthropogenic factors; Archipelagoes; Biodiversity; Climate change; Environmental assessment; Environmental impact; Environmental Sciences; Exposure; Human influences; Humanities and Social Sciences; Islands; Mammals; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Sensitivity analysis; Species extinction; Threatened species; Climate-change ecology; Macroecology
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18740-x

Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity. Island ecosystems are notoriously vulnerable to anthropogenic species losses. Here, the authors identify insular hotspots of vulnerability to climate change (under RCPs 6.0 and 8.5) in mammals via a trait-based, quantitative vulnerability framework, finding that exposure to climate change is not a reliable proxy to assess species vulnerability, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are crucial to understand vulnerability.