Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format

• Published in: Monthly weather review Vol. 141; no. 10; pp. 3576 - 3592
• Main Authors: LANDSEA, Christopher W, FRANKLIN, James L
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.10.2013
• Subjects: Aircraft; Basins; Climatology; Cyclones; Earth, ocean, space; Estimates; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Forecast improvement; Forecasting techniques; Global positioning systems; GPS; Hurricane forecasting; Hurricane tracking; Hurricanes; Meteorology; Satellites; Storms; Surveys; Uncertainty; Weather; Wind; Pacific Ocean; Northeast Pacific; East Atlantic; Atlantic Ocean; North Pacific; AN, Atlantic; A, Atlantic; IN, North Pacific; intensity; hurricanes; Severe weather; Tropical cyclone; data bases; uncertainties; trajectory; Comparative study
• ISSN: 0027-0644; 1520-0493
• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-12-00254.1

"Best tracks" are National Hurricane Center (NHC) poststorm analyses of the intensity, central pressure, position, and size of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basin tropical and subtropical cyclones. This paper estimates the uncertainty (average error) for Atlantic basin best track parameters through a survey of the NHC Hurricane Specialists who maintain and update the Atlantic hurricane database. A comparison is then made with a survey conducted over a decade ago to qualitatively assess changes in the uncertainties. Finally, the implications of the uncertainty estimates for NHC analysis and forecast products as well as for the prediction goals of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program are discussed.